Fantastic project! On the Gulf: https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v12y2024i6p134-d1404154.html "The facilities provided by the Government of the UAE were perceived to be considerably more favourable in comparison to those offered by the Government of India. The favourable view of the UAE authorities led to the choice of several migrant workers to remain there rather than return to India throughout the pandemic." Btw: I tried to donate but ran into many PayPal bugs ("Please try again later. We apologize for the inconvenience."). Is there another way?
I'd note, in a way that does not detract from your overall analysis, that if we assume that Thandiwe, in your model's no-migration scenario, is in a salaried job, then it is likely that she would be sharing at least some proportion of her earnings with relatives: mainly through capital transfers; buying goods (especially for elderly relatives living remotely); or by hosting relatives in her house. This is a fairly standard arrangement across Africa, though tricky to measure, because it consists in interhousehold transfers that don't cross surveillance points. It is probably wrong to assume that she distributes $0 of her income.
Now, this observation is not going to change your conclusion, so it is really just a point of order.
Thanks! And definitely a good point. I had to make several simplifying assumptions to avoid rebuilding our (very complicated) cost-effectiveness analysis.
> The type of work that can be neatly packaged and sent across the world to someone is exactly the work that AI is best suited to replace. The major publicly listed outsourcing firms (call centres, data entry, basic software development, document processing) have seen stock prices drop 62.5% since ChatGPT launched.
I think this one is not as clear as it might seem. Benjamin Todd recently posted that call center employment was actually rising, not shrinking, software dev jobs are rising again, most people (us included) have jobs you can do from home. Curious how you think about that?
I might be biased, I am building https://donethat.ai with the hope to enable more remote work through an AI-verified proof-of-work
I've seen the numbers on BPO and agreed that it's a little surprising that it's not yet falling. But given the obviousness of the use case for AI and the market signal from the share prices of BPO companies I think it's pretty likely it will start to fall in the coming years.
Software engineering is harder to predict but there does seem to be declining demand at entry level in the US. So very possible that high-level software engineers continue to be demanded, but that's not a plausible solution to mass job creation for low-income people in Africa.
"Government nursing recruitment is blocked by IMF-imposed limits, forcing many to leave. Malawi's National Organization of Nurses and Midwives has been assisting unemployed nurses seeking jobs outside the country." Is this true? It sounds like it'll contribute to the collapse of Malawi's healthcare system. The solution should be to aid their local healthcare system rather than contribute to its collapse while "helping" the nurses.
Great piece, and thanks for highlighting Velocity and Aedilo--I haven't heard of them before!
Thanks Alex! Really enjoyed 'In Our Interest' and your blog more generally and it has definitely shaped how we think about our work.
Fantastic project! On the Gulf: https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jecomi/v12y2024i6p134-d1404154.html "The facilities provided by the Government of the UAE were perceived to be considerably more favourable in comparison to those offered by the Government of India. The favourable view of the UAE authorities led to the choice of several migrant workers to remain there rather than return to India throughout the pandemic." Btw: I tried to donate but ran into many PayPal bugs ("Please try again later. We apologize for the inconvenience."). Is there another way?
Thanks!
And sorry about the PayPal, just dropped you a private message
Really interesting read and approach.
Thanks Steve!
A fantastic piece; thank you so much!
I'd note, in a way that does not detract from your overall analysis, that if we assume that Thandiwe, in your model's no-migration scenario, is in a salaried job, then it is likely that she would be sharing at least some proportion of her earnings with relatives: mainly through capital transfers; buying goods (especially for elderly relatives living remotely); or by hosting relatives in her house. This is a fairly standard arrangement across Africa, though tricky to measure, because it consists in interhousehold transfers that don't cross surveillance points. It is probably wrong to assume that she distributes $0 of her income.
Now, this observation is not going to change your conclusion, so it is really just a point of order.
Thanks! And definitely a good point. I had to make several simplifying assumptions to avoid rebuilding our (very complicated) cost-effectiveness analysis.
Which is here - https://www.africajobsfund.com/impact#cea
> The type of work that can be neatly packaged and sent across the world to someone is exactly the work that AI is best suited to replace. The major publicly listed outsourcing firms (call centres, data entry, basic software development, document processing) have seen stock prices drop 62.5% since ChatGPT launched.
I think this one is not as clear as it might seem. Benjamin Todd recently posted that call center employment was actually rising, not shrinking, software dev jobs are rising again, most people (us included) have jobs you can do from home. Curious how you think about that?
I might be biased, I am building https://donethat.ai with the hope to enable more remote work through an AI-verified proof-of-work
Thanks Christoph!
I've seen the numbers on BPO and agreed that it's a little surprising that it's not yet falling. But given the obviousness of the use case for AI and the market signal from the share prices of BPO companies I think it's pretty likely it will start to fall in the coming years.
Software engineering is harder to predict but there does seem to be declining demand at entry level in the US. So very possible that high-level software engineers continue to be demanded, but that's not a plausible solution to mass job creation for low-income people in Africa.
Curious to hear everyone's thoughts!
Well done, Ben!
Thanks Mushfiq!
"Government nursing recruitment is blocked by IMF-imposed limits, forcing many to leave. Malawi's National Organization of Nurses and Midwives has been assisting unemployed nurses seeking jobs outside the country." Is this true? It sounds like it'll contribute to the collapse of Malawi's healthcare system. The solution should be to aid their local healthcare system rather than contribute to its collapse while "helping" the nurses.
A sincere thank you for your contributions in making the European far right successful! Better advertising is hard to imagine.